Winter term 2020/2021

02.11.2020: Mark Kirstein, London Mathematical Laboratory

Nov 09, 2020 from 04:15 PM to 05:30 PM

virtual lecture

Speaker: Mark Kirstein, PhD, DAAD Prime Fellow in Ergodicity Economics

DAAD PRIME Fellow of the London Mathematical Laboratory

MPI MiS Research Group on Economics and Social Sciences

Host: Prof. Thomas Lux

Title: What are we weighting for? A mechanistic model for probability weighting

Abstract

Behavioural economics provides labels for patterns in human economic behaviour. Probability weighting is one such label. It expresses a mismatch between probabilities used in a formal model of a decision (i.e. model parameters) and probabilities inferred from real people's decisions (the same parameters estimated empirically). The inferred probabilities are called ``decision weights.'' It is considered a robust experimental finding that decision weights are higher than probabilities for rare events, and (necessarily, through normalisation) lower than probabilities for common events. Typically this is presented as a cognitive bias, i.e. an error of judgement by the person. Here we point out that the same observation can be described differently: broadly speaking, probability weighting means that a decision maker has greater uncertainty about the world than the observer. We offer a plausible mechanism whereby such differences in uncertainty arise naturally: when a decision maker must estimate probabilities as frequencies in a time series while the observer knows them a priori. This suggests an alternative presentation of probability weighting as a principled response by a decision maker to uncertainties unaccounted for in an observer's model.

https://uni-kiel.zoom.us/j/88363960934

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09.11.2020: Dominik Sachs, LMU München

Nov 09, 2020 from 04:15 PM to 05:45 PM

virtual lecture

Short Introduction Round of new PhD candidates 2020, followed by presentation of

Speaker: Prof. Dr. Dominik Sachs, LMU München - Public economics, macroeconomics, education and labor economics

Title: The Indirect Fiscal Benefits of Low-Skilled Immigration

Host: Prof. Jens Ruhose

Abstract:

Low-skilled immigrants indirectly affect public finances through their effect on native wages & labor supply. We operationalize this general-equilibrium effect in the workhorse labor market model with heterogeneous workers and intensive and extensive labor supply margins. We derive a closed-form expression for this effect in terms of estimable statis- tics. We extend the analysis to various alternative specifications of the labor market and production that have been emphasized in the immigration literature. Empirical quantifi- cations for the U.S. reveal that the indirect fiscal benefit of one low-skilled immigrant lies between $770 and $2,100 annually. The indirect fiscal benefit may outweigh the negative direct fiscal effect that has previously been documented. This challenges the perception of low-skilled immigration as a fiscal burden.

https://uni-kiel.zoom.us/j/81078037039

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23.11.2020: Prof. Dr. Simon Wiederhold, KU Eichstätt-Ingolstadt

Nov 23, 2020 from 04:15 PM to 05:30 PM

virtual lecture

Speaker: Prof. Dr. Simon Wiederhold, KU Eichstätt-Ingolstadt

Please use this link to participate:

https://uni-kiel.zoom.us/j/81447331343

Titel: Behavioral Barriers and the Socioeconomic Gap in Child Care Enrollment

Abstract
Early child care is an essential tool to support child development and to mitigate educational inequality early in life. While children from families with lower socioeconomic status (SES) tend to benefit more from child care, their enrollment rates are substantially lower. We investigate whether alleviating behavioral barriers in the child care application process reduces this SES gap. In a randomized controlled trial with more than 600 families with infant children in Germany, we implement a behavioral intervention that provides parents with information and application assistance. Nine months after the intervention, treated lower-SES families are 21 percentage points more likely to apply for a child care slot, and 16 percentage points more likely to be enrolled in child care. The treatment has no effect on higher-SES families, implying that it closes the SES gap in application probability entirely, and halves the SES gap in enrollment. The treatment is especially helpful for families with an initial plan to enroll and parents with high beliefs about the returns to child care. Analyses on supply-side constraints indicate that benefits are concentrated in areas with high competition for child care slots. Our study demonstrates that the socioeconomic gap in child care enrollment is substantially determined by behavioral barriers that can be easily overcome. Policies aiming at reducing these barriers are potentially cost-effective means to foster equality of opportunity early on.

Host: Prof. Jens Ruhose

Dr. Rüdiger Voss

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